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China's New MIRV Ballistic Missile Is A Big Deal (764 hits)

Robert Johnson|Dec. 11, 2012, 9:34 AM

During the nuclear honed days of the Cold War, the Soviet Union developed a uniquely dangerous missile able to strike anywhere in the U.S.

Loaded with multiple maneuverable warheads (MIRVs), while carrying decoys and chaff to keep from getting struck down, the technology undermined the entire balance of power between the two superpowers and struck fear into hard hearts at the Kremlin and the Pentagon alike.

It was a difficult era, fraught with When China successfully tested its DF-31A missile several days ago, it confirmed another country now has proven nuclear ability reach any city in the U.S. with precisely the type of missiles that troubled the U.S. decades ago.

The DF-31A is believed to have three warheads per missile and a range of about 7,000 miles, which allows it to target anywhere in the U.S. While that ability isn't new, China's CSS-4 has that capability as well, that missile requires a stationary launch pad and contains but one nuclear warhead.






US Department of Defense

Inverted map, the DF-31A's range is within the penultimate ring and the US between that and the green ring
The DF-31A is portable and launches from the back of a tank, train, or truck. China also has more than 3,000 miles of underground tunnels and highly reinforced military bunkers where it can stash the highly mobile ordnance

Notoriously cryptic about the extent of its nuclear arsenal, China announced the launch on a Chinese military news site.

Bill Gertz at The Washington Free Beacon confirms what the site claims, reporting that U.S. intelligence, airborne, and space sensors picked up the launch from China's Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center in western China when it happened.

From the Beacon:

It was the second DF-31A flight test since August and highlights China’s growing strategic nuclear buildup, a modernization program largely carried out in secret. The DF-31A test also took place on the last day of a rare U.S.-China military exercise in Chengdu that practiced joint disaster relief efforts.

China is known to use its missile tests to send political signals, as in 1996 when it bracketed Taiwan with missile flight tests that impacted north and south of the island prior to a presidential election. Analysts say the DF-31A test likely was intended to bolster the Chinese military’s hardline stance toward the United States and particularly the U.S. military, regarded by Beijing as its main adversary.

Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, told the Beacon, the development “suggests that China may be building toward a ‘counterstrike’ strategy that would require the secret buildup of many more missiles and warheads than suggested by public ICBM number estimates made available by the U.S. Intelligence Community.”






Wikipedia Commons
A viable counterstrike is one potential scenario China may be planning for, but what unsettled both the U.S. and the Soviets about the MIRVs when they came around the first time was the "enhancement of a first strike capability."

Basically, having multiple warheads per missile vastly increases the chances of successfully striking the U.S. and at multiple sites. The belief was that this degree of confidence would do little to decrease the chances of nuclear war.

But with so much going on in the world today at a pace the warriors of the Cold War never imagined, it's easy to overlook just one more missile test. Which is why it could be important to remember that it's missiles like this that helped lift the arms race to the frenzied heights it achieved before the Iron Curtain fell in the early 1990s and defined a generation.

If China shares the MIRV technology with Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and North Korea like it has shared nuclear, missile materials, and technology in the past it could prompt an entirely new round of concerns.


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Thursday, December 20th 2012 at 11:37AM
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February 28, 2012
WHAT DOES CHINA SEE IN SYRIA?
Posted by Evan Osnos

On Syria, China and the United States are about to tumble out of the diplomatic ring and onto the judge’s table. Hillary Clinton last week said China and Russia are “despicable” for vetoing U.N. Security Council resolutions “while people are being murdered.” (“ ‘Despicable’ is not your standard diplomatic word,” Richard Cohen of the Washington Post points out. “Words are never personal, always a step back, a message from the balcony—and then it’s time for lunch and the usual communique, a blah, blah, blah of words meaning very little.”)

China responded with its own flourish: “The problem is, what moral basis does it have for this patronizing and egotistical super-arrogance and self-confidence?” asked the People’s Daily, the Party mouthpiece. “Even now, violence continues unabated in Iraq and ordinary people enjoy no security. This alone is enough for us to draw a huge question mark over the sincerity and efficacy of U.S. policy.”

Activists now put the death toll in Syria at more than eight thousand and climbing. If Russia’s motives are easier to divine—Assad has been a loyal customer for years—what is driving China’s calculations on this? What does China get out of Syria? For more, I checked in with Shi Yinhong, an influential international-relations specialist at Renmin University, who told me that, while China sees a “need to keep step with Russia” to some degree, the motivations are distinctly Chinese: “China’s worry about the resurgent Western ‘liberal interventionism’ is playing a substantial part, especially after the abuse by NATO countries” and Arab allies in Libya, he said. Shi, who is an adviser to the Chinese cabinet on foreign affairs, went on: “The Chinese government may feel that it has to stop at somewhere to hold on to the principle of sovereignty and non-intervention…. If this time it and Russia do the same as they did over Libya, very bad developments over Iran would probably come true—uglier and sooner.”

For China, in effect, Syria has become a firewall. China is setting itself up for an unwelcome response from a transforming Middle East, but leaders in Beijing have have more immediate concerns: “China’s reputation in the Arab world will be hurt to some degree, but it will surely be quite temporary and limited. After all, China should not be required to agree with others every time. Otherwise, its reputation, including that for willpower, might be negatively impacted even more in the longer term both among the Chinese public and some, or perhaps many, nations in the world.”


Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/evan...

Thursday, December 20th 2012 at 3:52PM
Steve Williams
Jake, we might want to keep this in mind as we listen to the hue and cry for an assault weapons ban.
Thursday, December 20th 2012 at 4:11PM
Steve Williams
Jake, we don't want WWIII. See, this gun control business is just a red herring. In the meantime we're heading for infinitely more children killed. Syria is crucial. If Syria falls, next is Iran, and then BOOM!
Thursday, December 20th 2012 at 10:28PM
Steve Williams
That's right Jake, they want to disarm us. The President can do this by Executive Order. But first they will play the U.N. Small Arms Treaty hand. Hear anyone talking about that?
Thursday, December 20th 2012 at 11:29PM
Steve Williams
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