THE SURPRISE—AND EVEN THAT WORD UNDERSTATES IT—NOMINATION OF ALVIN GREENE, AN UNEMPLOYED MAN WHO LIVES WITH HIS PARESNTS, AS DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE HAS CAPTIVATED THE COUNTRY.
How could a man who has acknowledged to never campaigning for the office wind up beating a former four-term legislator -- Vic Rawls -- by 30,000 votes for the right to challenge conservative icon Jim DeMint (R) this fall?
Theories abound. Here's a look at the most popular ones:
1. Greene is a Republican plant: South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn (D) is leading the charge on this storyline -- insisting that Greene is part of a broader conspiracy designed to wreak havoc in Democratic primaries including his own. By this afternoon, there was evidence that the man who had challenged Clyburn in the Democratic primary (and lost) had financial ties to a Republican consulting firm.
Clyburn has yet to provide any evidence that suggests the same thing was going on in the Senate race but it's worth noting that planting candidates for nefarious reasons is not a new practice in South Carolina. Clyburn has cited the famous example of Republican consultant Rod Shealy recruiting an unemployed black man to challenge Rep. Arthur Ravenel in the 1st district race in an attempt to help drive white turnout statewide and, in so doing, help win his sister the lieutenant governor's nomination. And, yes, that really did happen.
Not only have Republicans -- both publicly and privately -- denied any involvement, it also doesn't make much sense for them to engage in the sort of dirty trick that is being alleged. DeMint, while he inspires considerable disgust among many Democrats (and even a few Republicans) at the national level, is quite popular in the Palmetto State. Whether it was Alvin Greene or Vic Rawl running against him, DeMint is something close to a shoo-in for re-election. Would Republicans really take that sort of risk in a race where they would be, at best, a longshot under any circumstances?
It seems unlikely. That said, having spent the last few days sorting through the nastiest political campaigns in South Carolina history, nothing would shock us.
2. Ballot primacy: Greene's name appeared first on the Democratic primary ballot and, since it's a near-certainty that no one -- or certainly very few people -- knew who either Greene or Rawl were, they simply voted for the first name they saw.
With very few contested races -- Democratic candidates won their nominations without challenge for Comptroller General, state Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State -- and the Republican race for governor drawing so much oxygen, there was almost no coverage of the Senate race.
That dearth of information could well have contributed to simply picking the first name on the ballot and moving on.
The counter argument -- made smartly by Tom Schaller over at 538.com -- is that turnout in the Senate race seems oddly high for a race that drew absolutely no attention. A total of 169,542 people voted in the Senate contest while 188,576 -- roughly 19,000 more -- cast ballots in the far more high-profile Democratic primary for governor.
3. Race-motivated voting: One longtime Democratic strategist who has worked on and off in South Carolina for a career insisted that race is the simplest -- and right -- explanation.
"Black voters knew the guy was black by looking at his name," the source said of Greene. The source added that black voters who always comprise a large chunk of the vote in a South Carolina Democratic primary made up an even larger segment this time around due to the massive interest generated by the Republican governor's race. (South Carolina has an open primary system where individual voters can choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.)
Describing the potential thought process of some black voters in Tuesday's primary, the source said:
"They go in there to vote and they see two names on the ballot. They've never heard of either one, but they see 'Alvin Greene' first and 'Victor Rawl' second. They vote for the name they feel most comfortable with."
State Sen. Robert Ford, an African American who lost his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, seems to subscribe to this theory. "Vic Rawl had money, but he didn't have enough," Ford told the Charleston Post and Courier. "He wasn't able to identify himself with black voters. No white folks have an 'e' on the end of Green."
That's not entirely true, however. Billionaire investor Jeff Greene, who is running for the Democratic Senate nomination in Florida, is white.
Posted By: Richard Kigel
Saturday, June 12th 2010 at 10:31AM
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