In the voter fraud debate, be wary of junk science
By Justin Grimmer, Andrew B. Hall, and Daniel M. Thompson, opinion contributors 21 hrs ago
Allegations of fraud in the 2020 U.S. election show no signs of slowing down. Former President Donald Trump continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen. The impact of those claims has caused significant harm to Americans' faith in their elections; 71 percent identify illegally cast ballots as a problem in U.S. elections and 30 percent don't believe Joe Biden was elected President. The summary dismissal of Trump's charges by many in the establishment and mainstream media over the last 9 months has done nothing to reduce these numbers.
With Trump and his supporters continuing to level these charges, it is vital to engage with and examine the few specific claims of voter fraud they make - both to ensure the security of our electoral system, and to help the public, policymakers, and the judicial system understand the nature and quality of the evidence.
As academic elections researchers, we have done that with an examination of "The Georgia Report" by Matt Braynard and his organization, "Look Ahead America." This report is likely the most-cited specific fraud claim from Trump supporters, and Trump referenced initial findings from the report in his post-election telephone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
After examining the report and its underlying data, we conclude that the "Georgia Report" is fatally flawed in ways that dismantle its veneer of scientific rigor. For the reasons we describe, it cannot confirm any cases of fraud, and its estimates of the amount of illegal voting in the 2020 Georgia election are completely unreliable. Its flaws are so deep that it casts doubt on the similar "methodology" behind most of the Trumpian claims of ineligible voters around the country.
At the heart of the "Georgia Report" is a claim that more than 10,000 people voted illegally in Georgia in 2020 while residing in other states. The authors arrive at this claim by finding individuals who appear in official Georgia records as having voted in 2020, but who also filed "permanent" out-of-state changes of address prior to the election.
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Posted By: Dea. Ron Gray Sr.
Saturday, August 28th 2021 at 6:58AM
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