THE GRAND ILLUSION: REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE IS NOT INEVITABLE, Charles M. Blow, NY Times, Sept. 18, 2010
Let me be clear: the idea of an inevitable Republican landslide in November is not a foregone conclusion. It’s a self-perpetuating bit of wishful thinking that’s gaining currency through the force of being recycled ad nauseam by overzealous pundits.
It’s no wonder then that Democrats with defeatist tendencies have bought into it. They are morose and slumped, prematurely assuming the crestfallen posture of a party rejected, rending their garments like a PETA spokeswoman in a meat dress.
Sure, some seats will change party control, but a landslide is hardly certain, particularly if Democrats can change their tune and energize their base. A New York Times/CBS News poll released this week asked respondents whom they would vote for in their own districts if the midterms were held today. Among those the poll determined to be likely voters, Republican candidates held a small edge. (Likely voter models are used to make predictions about the midterms.) However, among all registered voters, Democrats held a larger edge.
According to a Gallup report issued earlier this month, blacks, women and young adults — many of whom were new voters in 2008 — are “not poised for high turnout on Nov. 2.” Some falloff is to be expected, but the gap this year in electoral interest between blacks and whites and men and women is much wider than in previous midterm elections.
The Democrats’ strategy of highlighting the scary Tea Party-supported candidates isn’t working for them. Fear factors don’t provide much traction. They turn off instead of turn out.
These voters came to the polls in 2008 because they were inspired and hopeful, not angry and scared. They need to be inspired anew. Democrats must ignite their fealty, and they must do so with a positive, idea-based message.
They must stop running away from their legislative accomplishments — many of which directly benefit blacks, young people and women — and start running on them. And they must talk more about new proposals to jolt the economy out of stagnation.
Democrats have not focused enough time and energy on the economy and job creation, the two subjects that respondents in the Times/CBS News poll identified as the most important issues facing the country. But, even so, when asked whom they think would do a better job of handling economic issues like the recession, creating jobs and helping the middle class and small businesses, people favored Democrats over Republicans.
Regardless of what Republicans and Tea Party supporters would have us believe, voters have not abandoned the Democrats. The Democrats have abandoned their voters. Democrats must romance the base that delivered their majorities. As the saying goes, you have to dance with the one who brought you.
It’s no wonder then that Democrats with defeatist tendencies have bought into it. They are morose and slumped, prematurely assuming the crestfallen posture of a party rejected, rending their garments like a PETA spokeswoman in a meat dress.
Sure, some seats will change party control, but a landslide is hardly certain, particularly if Democrats can change their tune and energize their base. A New York Times/CBS News poll released this week asked respondents whom they would vote for in their own districts if the midterms were held today. Among those the poll determined to be likely voters, Republican candidates held a small edge. (Likely voter models are used to make predictions about the midterms.) However, among all registered voters, Democrats held a larger edge.
According to a Gallup report issued earlier this month, blacks, women and young adults — many of whom were new voters in 2008 — are “not poised for high turnout on Nov. 2.” Some falloff is to be expected, but the gap this year in electoral interest between blacks and whites and men and women is much wider than in previous midterm elections.
The Democrats’ strategy of highlighting the scary Tea Party-supported candidates isn’t working for them. Fear factors don’t provide much traction. They turn off instead of turn out.
These voters came to the polls in 2008 because they were inspired and hopeful, not angry and scared. They need to be inspired anew. Democrats must ignite their fealty, and they must do so with a positive, idea-based message.
They must stop running away from their legislative accomplishments — many of which directly benefit blacks, young people and women — and start running on them. And they must talk more about new proposals to jolt the economy out of stagnation.
Democrats have not focused enough time and energy on the economy and job creation, the two subjects that respondents in the Times/CBS News poll identified as the most important issues facing the country. But, even so, when asked whom they think would do a better job of handling economic issues like the recession, creating jobs and helping the middle class and small businesses, people favored Democrats over Republicans.
Regardless of what Republicans and Tea Party supporters would have us believe, voters have not abandoned the Democrats. The Democrats have abandoned their voters. Democrats must romance the base that delivered their majorities. As the saying goes, you have to dance with the one who brought you.
Charles M. Blow is one of those cool headed analysts who relies on reason and data to arrive at his eminently logical conclusions.
Here he is saying exactly the same thing that Clark has been saying for months!!!
I hope somebody listens!!!