Conventional Wisdom From the POLITICO Playbook

2012 - HOUSE - "Chairman Inherits Financial Mess at DCCC," John Bresnahan and Alex Isenstadt: "Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) is not exactly vowing to win back the House in 2012, but he still insists 'the House will be in play' next year. Yet Israel is inheriting a mess as he takes over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle. The DCCC is nearly $20 million in debt, the electoral map may be even more daunting in 2012 after redistricting, and fundraising even tougher as the party competes for money during a presidential election cycle. The DCCC has slightly more than $3 million cash on hand." http://bit.ly/fdRCnG

THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

PRESIDENT OBAMA's chance of being reelected: 75%

MITT ROMNEY's chance of being the GOP nominee: 20%

JON HUNTSMAN's chance of being the GOP nominee: 15%

SARAH PALIN's chance of being the GOP nominee: 10%