In Brussels and other European capitals, the fear of Vladimir Putin is becoming palpable. The mood has changed in a matter of weeks from one of handwringing impotence over Ukraine to one of foreboding.
The anxiety is encapsulated in the sudden rush to Moscow by Angela Merkel and François Hollande. To senior figures closely involved in the diplomacy and policymaking over Ukraine, the Franco-German peace bid is less a hopeful sign of a breakthrough than an act of despair.
“There’s nothing new in their plan, just an attempt to stop a massacre,” said one senior official.
Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable. A senior diplomat in Brussels, echoing the broad EU view, said arming the Ukrainians would mean war with Russia, a war that Putin would win.
Announcing the surprise mission to Kiev and Moscow, Hollande sounded grave and solemn. The Ukraine crisis, he said, started with differences, which became a conflict, which became a war, and which now risked becoming “total war”.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former Danish prime minister and until recently the head of Nato, publicly voiced fears that Putin could expand what is seen as Soviet revisionism to countries now in Nato and the EU. In the Baltics, Putin might risk a little exercise in “hybrid warfare”, he said, just to test how the western alliance would react.
That Merkel has gone to Moscow is telling in itself and speaks to the sudden gravity of the situation. The Russian-speaking German chancellor has talked to the German-speaking Putin more than 40 times in the past year as the main western mediator on Ukraine. But until Friday she had never gone to Moscow. Only a few weeks ago she vetoed a summit in Kazakhstan with Putin because she believed there was no point negotiating with someone she no longer trusted.
Putin is demanding that a large tract of eastern Ukraine, taken by force by his separatist proxies in recent weeks, be granted internationally licensed autonomy and that a new frontline be recognised as a basis for a putative ceasefire.
The parallel might be 1991 in Croatia when the Serbs took a quarter of the country and then consolidated their grip behind lines patrolled by UN peacekeepers. It crippled and destabilised Croatia.
European policymakers say this is Putin’s aim in Ukraine. In Croatia the land-grab lasted four years until Zagreb, gradually armed by the Americans and Europeans, quickly routed the Serbs militarily.
The big difference then was that the Serbs were stretched by a bigger war next door in Bosnia where eventually Nato bombed them to the negotiating table. That will not happen with the Russians.
Arming the Ukrainians, meanwhile, will open up big divisions between the Americans and most Europeans. Putin is playing on those divisions as he plays on splits between the Europeans. He does not need to try very hard. The divisions are ever-present over sanctions.
On Monday the EU will impose more sanctions, extending a blacklist of pro-Russia separatists and Russians by 19 names. These penalties are minor. The broader economic sanctions in force against Russian banks and companies are more serious. They lapse in July unless extended by all EU governments.
Last year the biggest opponent was Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, whose then foreign minister, Federica Mogherini, now coordinates EU foreign policy. The new leftwing pro-Russia Greek government may be this summer’s problem.
The sanctions policy has so far held up, but is showing acute strains. Senior diplomats from EU governments regularly say the sanctions are hurting but are not working because they have not changed Putin’s behaviour. The EU is split in two, with Britain leading the pro-sanctions side and a sizeable group complaining that the punishment has cost the EU an estimated 15% of exports to Russia. Germany is the pivot, the swing power.
Putin is increasingly seen as a reckless gambler who calls bluffs and takes risks, and is inscrutable, paranoid and unpredictable. Trying to work out what he wants is guesswork. The Europeans sound scared.
Ukraine is a huge problem for Europe, not least the dawning realisation that fixing it will cost tens of billions and will take a very long time. But for Europe it is becoming clear that the real nightmare is not Ukraine, but Putin’s Russia.
The United States and the EU will continue with their geopolitical bluffing until the Russian military decides it's time to finish the job and they will be running in the UN like scared little children.
Here is another article from a Russian military official that clearly explains that the Moscow backed East Ukrainian rebels are serving the Ukrainian Army.
Obama knew the final outcome as he has stated that his country should avoid military confrontation with Russia.
Why does he make this statement?
Because he knows that his military cannot prevail over Russia in any military attempt.
He knows those Super Russian EMP weapons will end it all without a burst, explosion, silent death!
Article:
"Ukrainian army is close to annihilation"--Kulik
2/5/2015
Russian General: DPR and LPR will continue its offensive,the Ukrainian army is close to annihilation.
By Viktor Avin
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The Ukrainian army is in such a condition that the militia can freely advance until they reach the boundaries of Lugansk and Donetsk regions.
This opinion was expressed by Army General Anatoliy Kulikov, the former Minister of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, in an interview with the “Spetsialnyy Korrespondent” talk show.
“Ukraine has no prospects for an effective operation, from the perspective of either the political, moral, motivational, or technical point of view. They have created military groupings on Iraqi and Afghan model, namely company tactical teams. But over there it’s desert, while here it’s densely populated territory. So from the military-technical perspective it’s not a very appropriate decision.
Then there’s the question of weapons. The best was given to the territorial defense battalions, while the army stayed with the old weapons.
There is no repair base, no means of communications, loss of control.
Under such conditions DPR and LPR armed forces ought to continue their active offensive operations and reach their administrative borders. Only that will force Ukraine to start negotiating,” assured Kulikov.
J.Hawk’s Comment: Kulikov is entirely correct—DPR and LPR can do as they please, all they have to do is want to go on the offensive. The bulk of the UAF is already on the front line, with all the unpleasantness that it entails. The fact that the Rada had just passed a law that gives line commanders the authority to execute their own soldiers for insubordination is likewise suggestive that the level of discipline within the military is plumbing new depths. So there is a Plan B: if the Munich talks fail to accomplish anything, if Poroshenko continues to side with the party of war, then more war is what he will get. At this point, even large-scale NATO weapons supplies would do almost nothing to influence the conflict, except to antagonize Russia, which is why pretty much all EU member states have officially swore off such supplies. The US could still do it unilaterally, of course, but even the official White House position is against them—they know perfectly well that what Kulik describes above is true. Moreover, as detailed in earlier posts, Ukraine's economic position is getting worse with every passing day.